機関投資家はリスク軽減の動きを加速、この動きでドルと円は上昇へ＝ステート・ストリート

Institutional investments continue to de-risk, a process that will keep the US dollar and Japanese yen strong for the foreseeable future, says Ian Martin, senior managing director and head of sales and trading for Asia-Pacific at State Street Global Markets.
Capital flows by institutions are best described as “persistent”, he says, meaning that today’s visible flows will carry on tomorrow. And right now, the flow is one-way: retrenching from risk. State Street, which is a custodian to around $15 trillion of assets, one of the world’s big three along with JPMorgan and BNY Mellon, says cross-border appetite for equities is negligible.
“Institutional investors are not applying risk anywhere,” Martin says, “and that drives FX markets.”

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ドバイの不動産株価が下落、物件も価値が低減

Dubai property shares plunged and its biggest private developer slashed jobs this week as the global financial crisis tightened its grip on the emirate, until now synonymous with the GCC real estate boom.Dubais glittering skyline and luxury tourism sector have lured investors in droves over the past five years.
But property prices have begun to fall, according to brokers and banks, in one of the clearest signs to date that the bubble has burst.
Rehab Gouda, senior sales agent at Al Jabal Real Estate, said that property prices had fallen 30-35pc in Dubai since September. A three-bedroom villa in the unbuilt Jumeirah Park project, a sought-after area of the seaside emirate, which was worth around 4.8 million UAE dirhams ($1.3m) in August, is now valued at roughly 3.8m dirhams, she said. Times are certainly tough for the real estate sector with shares tumbling this year due to the crisis and a number of highly publicised investigations into alleged corruption.

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HSBC、追加人員削減の可能性を否定せず

HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe’s biggest bank by value, doesn’t rule out further job cuts, Vincent Cheng, chairman of its Asia-Pacific unit, told reporters in Hong Kong yesterday.
More banks are trimming staff to cut costs as fallout from the global credit crunch slows economic growth.
HSBC cut 1,100 jobs in its global banking and markets divisions in September. The bank said then it trimmed around 100 jobs in Hong Kong, where it’s the lender with the biggest network.　

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UAE消費者は世界で3番目に現状を楽観視、インドとデンマークに次ぐ

While most of the world struggles in the wake of a global economic slowdown, the UAE is ranked the third most optimistic nation in the latest Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index, moving up from its previous fourth position ranking six months ago.
India and Denmark topped Nielsen’s global consumer confidence index in the latest round of the survey which polled 26,202 online consumers at the height of the global financial meltdown in late September 2008.
“Despite being affected by the current global conditions, consumers in the UAE and other developing markets are aware that their medium-to-long-term prospects remain strong,” said Piyush Mathur, Regional Managing Director, Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan, The Nielsen Company.

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ドルが対新興国通貨で上昇、エマージング経済に打撃

In October, Australia, New Zealand and Mexico were all compelled to purchase more U.S. dollars to help stabilize their currencies. Mostly, this destabilization is due to risk aversion and flight to the safety of the U.S. dollar as the global economic meltdown worsens.
Without stable currencies, there is no liquidity, banks won’t lend and nations lose purchasing power that can help stimulate growth, adding to the possibility of deeper and longer recessions in the current economic environment.
“My fear is that this will be the next international development in terms of currencies,” said Bank of New York Mellon chief currency strategist Michael Wollfolk in an interview. “The emerging markets may end up getting hit harder than the major markets.”
From July 31 to the end of October, the U.S dollar appreciated more than 37% against the South African rand, 32% against the Brazilian real, 27% against the Euro, 25% against the Mexican peso, and 15% against the Indian rupee as well as other currencies.
The affect on those economies has begun to show.
“When you have over 10% depreciation in your currency within a relatively short period of time, that will have an inflationary impact on the economy, particularly if you have an open economy that buys a lot of goods from overseas,” Mr. Woolfolk said. 　

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10月の世界のヘッジファンド、1000億ドルの資産減少

The global hedge-fund industry lost $100 billion of assets in October, according to an estimate from Eurekahedge Pte, as firms were hammered by investor withdrawals.
Clients took about $60 billion out of funds, Singapore-based Eurekahedge said in a statement. Funds fell 3.3 per cent on average, as measured by the Eurekahedge Hedge Fund Index, which tracks the performance of more than 2,000 funds that invest globally.

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景気後退時にはヘルスケア、不動産セクターは最悪

Healthcare was the best place to be to ride out the last UK recession, according to Fidelity.
The group said in the early 1990s recession, pharmaceuticals & biotechnology rose more than 40% and personal goods was second best with a 35% rise.
Beverages rose 27%, but the worst sector was real estate which fell by 19% throughout the five quarters of negative GDP growth.
The group pointed out the FTSE 100 has lost 32% since its peak in October of last year, and said as equities move ahead of the economy we may already be at, or near, the bottom of the market downturn.
It said by the time the 1990 recession was announced the market had already reached a trough before enjoying an upward trend for more than half of the official recessionary period, returning 14.5% throughout the economic downturn.

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英ミューチュアルファンドの運用資産、今後一段と減少へ

U.K. mutual funds are set to see further drops in their assets under management in the coming months and will likely shut down unprofitable funds as the financial crisis - coupled with an ensuing economic recession - continues to weaken investment markets, experts said Friday.
In a research paper, Citigroup said it expects U.K. assets under management to fall by 33% this year due to poor investment performance and fund outflows.
That is a further drop from the 19% fall from the January-to-September period as recorded by the Investment Managers' Association.

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ドバイ、債務あるが救済の必用はない＝DIC幹部

Dubai International Capital (DIC) said on Saturday Dubai's estimated US$70 billion debt was "manageable" and the Gulf's commercial hub would not need to be "bailed out" as the credit crunch hits the world's top oil exporting region.
"It's not a question of them (Gulf investors) coming to bail out Dubai ... they will invest in Dubai if they see opportunities coming up," said Chief Executive Sameer al-Ansari on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Dubai.

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フォルティス、第３・四半期に5700万ドルの損失を計上

Fortress Investment Group, the alternative asset manager that went public last year, posted a net loss of $57m for the third quarter as investors filed requests to remove $4.5bn (?3.5bn) from liquid and hybrid hedge fund strategies following their mixed results.
Most of the third-quarter loss stemmed from the compensation agreement for directors tied to the company's initial public offering in February last year. Fortress’ liquid hedge funds had $9.1bn in assets under management as of September 30.
The global macro and commodities funds had $900m in redemption requests for the third quarter. The funds have received an additional $1.7bn in redemption notices for the year to date.　

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